The palm oil sector has had similarly mixed activity. Golden Veroleum, with operations in Liberia’s southeast, which has so far largely avoided the Ebola outbreak, is continuing operations, while taking precautions and granting leave to some staff based in Monrovia. However, Sime Darby, whose activities are near several affected areas, is slowing operations, although it will continue paying its 3,000 workers.

Rubber production, Liberia’s second-leading export, has mostly continued activities, although recent Ebola cases in Kakata in the centre of the rubber production region could significantly slow production. Timber production, which has dropped since 2013 due to governance issues and transportation bottlenecks, is based in the largely unaffected southeast and could avoid a significant impact.

The economic slowdown is reducing government receipts after already experiencing revenue shortfalls over the past year. Tax revenues were reduced by $12m between April and June, and have fallen further since the end of July when the outbreak escalated. This will make it significantly more challenging to fund the government’s proposed a $20.9m emergency response plan, and its $559m draft Fiscal Year 2014/15 Budget will have to be revised. The budget had increased security expenditure to offset the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) drawdown, which will be necessary considering the significant military activities involved in containing the outbreak. While the government has one of largest payrolls as a percent of GDP in the region and there are serious deficiencies in the system, the payroll also provides income to around 40,000 households. Continuing to pay government workers will be critical during the crisis to sustain economic activity. Potentially re-allocating some of the $18.25m budgeted for District Development Funds could provide some needed fiscal space.

Slowing public and private investment could also affect medium-term growth. The evacuation of skilled staff and contractors and restricted movements, if prolonged, will delay existing investment projects, as is being seen with ArcelorMittal and oil exploration. In light of the considerable uncertainty, the local business community is waiting to see how the situation evolves before making further investment and expansion, preferring to leave funds offshore in Lebanon or the United States. Slowing investment, especially from smaller businesses and on government energy and roads projects, would reduce the prospects for employment-generating, inclusive growth.

The perception of a return to instability in the region may take years to overcome. Liberia has spent 10 years of peace working to move beyond the memories and reputation of its brutal civil war, but this episode will revive those memories and add an additional layer of stigma. This will not only affect investors and the broader international community, but also Liberians abroad. The Liberian diaspora had been gradually returning since the war, bringing skills and resources, but this crisis has seen many leave again. With their families often still residing in the United States, they may hesitate to return once again. This will reduce the middle class of the country, which is essential to develop the economy, as well as to rebuild government services.

Perception is equally important for Liberians at home. Already distrustful of the medical system, a government that continues to face governance challenges, and the international community, the likelihood of unrest will increase the longer the crisis unfolds, service provision is interrupted, and as the economic and social damage increases. With 78% of the labour force only holding “vulnerable employment” without assurance of a salary, the large number of subsistence farmers and traders relying on small margins – while owning only modest assets and little savings – will not be able to cushion the downturn easily. Stability had been their opportunity to make modest progress and to gradually transition towards longer term perspectives. The poor will be hit hardest by the lack of access to medical facilities for treatable illnesses, unnecessarily increasing hardship and mortality. With even schools closed and soccer matches cancelled, an otherwise restive youth has few distractions. An armed mob’s looting of an Ebola clinic in West Point, chanting “there is no Ebola!” is just one of many instances highlighting local suspicion and the potential for disorder. International support must move rapidly and decisively to contain the disease and mitigate its economic and social impact. The Ebola crisis has been terrifying, and while the economic damage may be less striking, it will affect many more lives and increase the fragility of a region that was eager to move beyond its history of conflict.

Patrick Hettinger has been the African Development Bank’s senior country economist for Liberia since October 2011. This article was first published on the AfDB’s blog.