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Tunisia’s September 15 presidential election is set for a runoff next month between political outsiders Kaïs Saïed, an independent, and businessman Nabil Karoui. With 52% of votes counted the two candidates were on 18.7% and 15.5% respectively.

Final results are expected on Tuesday.

The news media has called the outcome a ‘stunning’, and ‘shocking’ blow to the political establishment, which fielded candidates including prime minister Youssef Chahed.

Hardly.

It’s a reaction to the failure of established parties to provide meaningful economic improvement. Promises of an economic revival following 2011’s Arab Spring have given way to IMF-backed austerity and a 30% spike in the cost of living since 2016, along with rising unemployment (35% among the youth).

This has fueled discontent with the status quo, reflected in the election result.

There should be no surprise here.

Worsening economic conditions have also been an important catalyst for mass protests in Algeria and Sudan, resulting in a full-blown revolution in the latter.

This in turn is symptomatic of the failure by African governments to improve economic opportunities for their citizens in the past decade, with unemployment and poverty rising across the continent.

Tunisia is the latest example of what should be an obvious correlation between economic disenfranchisement and political discontent.

It’s unlikely to be the last.

This report reflects the views of the author alone, not those of How we made it in Africa.

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Today’s picks

From the continent

Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari on Monday announced a new Economic Advisory Council, replacing the existing ‘Economic Management Team’ led by his vice president Yemi Osinbajo. No official reason has been given for the change, but it comes amid a worsening outlook for Africa’s biggest economy. More: Vanguard

Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on Monday restarted talks over Ethiopia’s 6,450MW Grand Renaissance Dam project – the first in more than a year. Disagreement about the project, especially its impact on the Nile river, have held back development since construction began in 2011. More: Reuters

The Global Perspective

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has appealed the January acquittal of Côte d’Ivoire’s former president Laurent Gbagbo over his alleged role in post-election violence in 2010-2011. His release on bail to Belgium has fueled speculation that it might impact general elections scheduled for October 2020. More: France 24

The World Bank has warned that developing countries must ‘dramatically’ increase innovation and the use of technology in agriculture to meet growing food demand and counter rising hunger. This comes amid rising food insecurity across Africa, which accounts for 31% of an estimated 821 million people suffering from hunger globally. More: World Bank

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