GDP forecasts for four rapid-growth markets in Africa
EY report forecasts growth rates for Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa.
The quarterly Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF) released yesterday by global tax and financial advisory firm EY has forecast the GDP growth for 25 rapid-growth markets (RGMs) next year, including Africa’s Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt.
Globally, the report expects a weak outlook for domestic demand in RGMs, and subsequent weaker trade flows, to drive down GDP growth in these regions in 2014.
According to the RGMF, a flight from risk has driven sharp falls in many RGM currencies globally, along with sharp rises in bond yields and an underperformance of equities. As a result, the forecast expects growth to be at 4.7% for the RGMs next year, noticeably lower than the July predictions of 5.7%. The EY report states that this is driven primarily by downward revisions to Latin America and Asia.
“Despite steady growth over the past few years the RGMs were hit hard by external pressures including the prospect of tapering of quantitative easing in the US and turmoil in the financial markets,” states senior economic adviser to the RGMF, Rain Newton-Smith. “Weaker domestic demand and concerns over structural weaknesses will also dampen growth.”
According to Rajiv Memani, chair of the Emerging Markets Committee at EY, emerging market governments need to introduce structural reforms and ease regulatory restrictions to restore investor confidence and realise potential.
“There is an opportunity now to make progress as the US has recently delayed its quantitative easing programme to next year and there is also increased buoyancy in the developed markets, which is resulting in capital flows into the rapid-growth markets,” Memani stated. “It is critical for the rapid-growth markets to take full advantage of the depreciation in their currencies for benefit of their export-oriented sectors and become more competitive with required shifts in policy.”
South Africa
South Africa’s growth will continue to be driven by domestic demand, even as inflation undermines consumption, according to EY’s RGMF.
“Although weaker than last year, domestic demand is expected to remain the primary source of growth, and GDP is expected to increase by 2% in 2013 and 3.2% in 2014,” stated the report.
Michael Lalor, Africa Business Centre leader at EY, said a comparison of economic risks across the 25 RGMs reveals some of the problematic areas for South Africa: mainly the current account deficit, relatively weak import cover and currency devaluation.
“In other areas though, we are relatively well positioned; in terms of government debt levels, for example, we are ranked somewhere in the middle relative to other markets,” stated Lalor.
He added that while South Africa needs to address serious economic risks, the country is not facing an economic crisis. “Furthermore, our finance cluster has an exceptional track record stretching back over the past two decades. This certainly provides confidence in the ability of our current finance minister and his team to effectively manage the South African economy over the next few years.”
However, Lalor added that a key challenge for the South African government will be to make the shift to a constant focus on implementing the National Development Plan, as stressed by South Africa’s Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan during his medium-term budget policy statement.
“The extent to which government is able to make this shift successfully will determine which of the diverging RGM growth paths South Africa follows," Lalor emphasised.
Ghana
According to the RGMF, Ghana’s “spectacular” growth seen in the last few years will move to a “solid” growth as the big boost from oil production fades. The report showed that GDP growth slowed to 6.7% in the first quarter of 2013 from 7.9% in 2012 and 15% in 2011.
“Services are still growing strongly and agriculture is picking up, but the rise in oil output is levelling out and world gold prices are lower,” continued the report. “We forecast solid GDP growth of about 6.5% in 2013 and then 5.5% to 6% a year in 2014–17.”
Nigeria
While growth is still forecast to slow in Nigeria, the non-oil sector remains the main driver of growth, according to the RGMF report.
“While services, agriculture, and wholesale and retail trade are engines of growth, the oil sector has stalled, posting a fall of about 1%. We still forecast GDP growth of some 6.5% in 2013. However, we expect it to slow to 5% to 6% a year in 2014–17 as the government struggles to implement policy reforms ahead of elections in 2015 and the oil sector continues to weigh on activity.”
In 2012, inflation was 12.2% and this has since eased to just over 8% which, according to EY’s research, enabled the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to cut interest rates in May to try to support activity and rates have remained unchanged since.
“The CBN remains concerned about the impact of spending by the states on the budget deficit. High public expenditure is expected to lift the budget deficit to about 4% of GDP in 2013.”
Egypt
Despite political turmoil in Egypt, the RGMF says the country’s economy seems to be rather resilient as “business sees the prospect of improved political and economic stability”.
“However, since the uprising in early 2011, reserves have fallen by more than US$20bn. Along with delayed payments to oil companies, Egypt may also have to pay back some $2bn to Qatar, with whom relations have deteriorated since the military intervention. Against the backdrop of slow growth, weak policy implementation and high government spending, the budget deficit continues to widen,” added the report. “This crowds out funds for private sector investment.”
The EY research states that the emergency $3.2bn economic stimulus plan, which focuses on investment projects, should support GDP growth of 2.4% in 2013–2014, up 0.2% in 2012.