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Agricultural production in Africa could contract by up to 7% as trade blockages and supply chain disruptions caused by the coronavirus crisis hit food markets. This is according to the World Bank’s latest regional outlook, which warns about the potential for a “severe food security crisis” on the continent.

The alarm is warranted, and overdue.

Hunger has been rising globally in recent years, particularly in Africa.

According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, 20% of the continent’s population is undernourished, which rises to almost 25% when you exclude North Africa. Africa accounts for 31% of the 820 million thought to be affected by hunger globally, with at least 31 countries already depending on food aid to meet domestic demand.

Of the 48 countries globally with serious or alarming hunger levels, 34 are on the continent. Meanwhile, Africa’s annual food import bill has grown to more than $50 billion according to the African Development Bank, more than total foreign direct investment in 2019.

Driving this is a combination of climate change, conflict, and economic downturns.

The latter is set to take centre stage, with the food industry warning that the coronavirus crisis could double the number of people affected by hunger globally in the coming months.

With the finances of most African governments already in dire straits, mounting a meaningful response will not only take effective and swift coordination on the continent, but substantial external support.

This report reflects the views of the author alone, not those of How we made it in Africa.

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This week’s picks

From the continent

Nigeria plans to end decades of fuel subsidies following the collapse of oil prices in recent weeks due to the Saudi-Russia price war. According to the country’s national oil company this is aimed at bringing domestic prices in line with markets. More: Bloomberg

The funding needs of sub-Saharan governments could increase by as much as $75 billion due to the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. The lender estimates that this could push average budget deficits of 3.5% to high single digits. More: Bloomberg

The global perspective

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other oil producers on Thursday tentatively agreed to a temporary reduction of around 10% in output, aimed at stabilising prices. The move, reportedly on shaky ground due to opposition from some countries, was met with caution by markets. More: New York Times

GDP across Africa will contract by between 2.1% and 5.1% in 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis, according to the World Bank’s latest regional outlook. This marks the continent’s first recession in 25 years. More: World Bank

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